Smart Flow Lab | Technology Analysis
Quantum Computing Faces Encryption: Crisis
By Mohamed Ismaili • • Senior Technology Analyst, Smart Flow Lab • 5 min read
Quantum computing milestones threaten modern encryption standards
While the world is abuzz with the potential of quantum computing to revolutionize industries from healthcare to finance, a looming crisis threatens to upend the very foundations of modern encryption standards. According to New York Post, "Quantum computers are exceptionally good at breaking codes," as noted by John Preskill, Caltech's Director of the Institute for Quantum Information, highlighting the double-edged sword that quantum computing presents. As the US government pushes to have a useful quantum computer by 2028, as reported by New Scientist, the question remains: can our current encryption methods withstand the power of quantum computing?
Background
The development of quantum computing has been accelerating in recent years, with significant investments from governments and private companies. However, this rapid progress also poses a significant threat to modern encryption standards, which are the backbone of secure online transactions and communication. Analysts note that the current encryption methods, such as RSA and elliptic curve cryptography, are vulnerable to quantum computer attacks, which could potentially break these codes and compromise sensitive information.
Current Developments
Recent developments in the field of quantum computing have highlighted the urgency of the situation. For instance, a new paper published in Nature has called into question Microsoft's claims about its quantum computing chip, the Majorana 1, as reported by The Verge. This has sparked a debate about the accuracy of claims made by companies in the field of quantum computing. Some of the key developments include:
- President Donald Trump signed executive orders aimed at accelerating quantum research and strengthening US defenses against cyberattacks, as reported by Insurance Journal.
- China's efforts to steal secrets and crack them using quantum computing have prompted the US to take action, as noted by Daily Signal.
- The US government's goal to have a useful quantum computer by 2028 has raised concerns about the potential risks and benefits of such a technology, as reported by New Scientist.
Market Impact
The potential impact of quantum computing on the market is significant, with estimates ranging from significant disruptions to entire industries to the creation of new opportunities. According to New York Post, quantum computers will "supercharge the world" but also present serious national security risks. As such, companies and governments are investing heavily in quantum computing research and development, as well as in the development of new encryption methods that can withstand quantum computer attacks.
"The development of quantum computing is a double-edged sword, offering significant benefits but also posing significant risks to national security and the integrity of online transactions. As such, it is essential to invest in the development of new encryption methods that can withstand quantum computer attacks." — Senior analyst, cybersecurity sector
My Take: Quantum Computing's Encryption Conundrum
I firmly believe that the rapid advancement of quantum computing poses a significant threat to modern encryption standards, and recent developments only reinforce this notion. As the US government aims to have a useful quantum computer by 2028, as reported by New Scientist, it is imperative to acknowledge the potential risks. John Preskill, Caltech's Director of the Institute for Quantum Information, aptly noted that "Quantum computers are exceptionally good at breaking codes," which underscores the need for robust countermeasures. However, I also think that the hype surrounding quantum computing's capabilities is somewhat overstated, as evidenced by the recent critique of Microsoft's quantum claims, which suggests that the company may have exaggerated its breakthrough. In my view, this discrepancy highlights the importance of separating fact from fiction in the quantum computing narrative. As the world watches the US and China engage in a quantum arms race, with President Trump signing executive orders to accelerate quantum research and boost cyber defenses, I expect the next 6-12 months to be crucial in determining the trajectory of this technology, and it will be essential to keep a close eye on how effectively these efforts can mitigate the looming encryption crisis.
Outlook
As the development of quantum computing continues to accelerate, it is essential to address the potential risks and benefits of this technology. According to Insurance Journal, the US government's efforts to accelerate quantum research and strengthen US defenses against cyberattacks are a step in the right direction. However, more needs to be done to ensure that the benefits of quantum computing are realized while minimizing its risks. As the world moves forward in this new era of computing, one thing is certain: the future of encryption and cybersecurity will never be the same.
📰 Sources & References
- US government wants to have a useful quantum computer by 2028 — New Scientist, 2026-06-29
- Quantum computers will supercharge the world — but they present serious national security risks — New York Post, 2026-06-25
- A new paper argues Microsoft exaggerated its quantum claims a year ago — The Verge, 2026-06-24
- China Is Stealing Our Secrets Today to Crack Them Tomorrow. Trump Just Started Fighting Back. — Daily Signal, 2026-06-24
- Trump Orders US to Speed Quantum Adoption, Boost Cyber Defenses — Insurance Journal, 2026-06-24
Mohamed Ismaili
Senior Technology Analyst at Smart Flow Lab. Mohamed covers artificial intelligence, semiconductor markets, cybersecurity infrastructure, and global digital policy. He has tracked the intersection of technology and geopolitics for over a decade, with a focus on how emerging markets — particularly in Africa and the Middle East — are being reshaped by digital transformation. Based in Morocco.
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